Plan video length before you start writing. Estimate runtime, retention curve, and avg view duration from script word count, delivery pace, and content type. Avoid the 18-minute trap when your script supports 8.
Most retention drop comes from script bloat that should have been cut at the outline stage. AI scripting tools surface the bloat before you record.
Runtime = words ÷ delivery pace (wpm). Retention curve uses YouTube's documented average curve shapes per content type from the Yang Creator Economy Report 2024 + Tubular Labs benchmarks: tutorial 60-70% floor, video essay 65-75% floor, vlog 35-50% floor, news/entertainment 30-45% floor, review 50-60% floor. Hook strength scales the first-30-second drop (strong: -20% drop, medium: -35%, weak: -50%). B-roll density adjusts the steepness of the post-intro decline. Avg view duration = integral of retention curve across runtime.
Caveat: these are population averages. Actual retention depends on niche, audience relationship, click-bait gap, content quality, and YouTube's algorithm cycle. Use as a planning floor, not a prediction. Source data: Tubular Labs benchmarks (tubularlabs.com/resources), Yang Creator Economy Report 2024 (creatoreconomy.so), TubeBuddy aggregate creator dashboards.